MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has ratified a comprehensive long-term plan for its coal sector, setting an annual production goal of 662 million tonnes by 2050 according to its projected scenario. This initiative extends the country’s coal industry policies through the mid-century. In 2024, Russia’s coal output was approximately 443 million tonnes, making the new target a significant rise from that figure. The approval was formalized under Order No. 2606-r, dated September 22, 2026.
Rather than a single fixed forecast, the programme outlines multiple development trajectories. The primary scenario envisions 530.1 million tonnes in 2030, increasing to 595.2 million tonnes in 2036, and ultimately reaching 662 million tonnes in 2050. Alternative scenarios project lower figures for the final year, with the stress scenario estimating 318.9 million tonnes, the conservative approach at 460.8 million tonnes, and the inertial case approximating 586.4 million tonnes.
Exports form a vital aspect of the long-term objectives within the plan. Under the primary scenario, exports are projected to hit 266.7 million tonnes by 2030, grow to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036, and reach 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted that Russian coal exports increased by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan also addresses domestic consumption, processing capacities, extraction methods, and regional production levels.
Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East to assume larger production roles
The government strategy designates Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East as key regions for expanded coal output. In 2024, these regions contributed 48.3% of Russia’s total coal production. Across the various scenarios, their combined share is expected to rise to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia reports more than 273 billion tonnes of coal reserves that have already been explored. The programme emphasizes maintaining existing mining capacities while developing new resource zones to meet future production goals.
Coal extraction and processing methods are assigned specific numerical targets within the framework. In 2024, processed coal—excluding lignite—accounted for 58.9% of total output. The plan aims to boost that ratio to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining contributed 78.4% of Russia’s coal production in 2024, with projections indicating a rise to between 82% and 85% in the long-term scenarios. Additionally, the programme incorporates initiatives to improve labor productivity, enhance mining technology, and uphold safety and environmental standards.
A three-phase approach guides the programme through 2050
The implementation of Russia’s coal strategy will unfold across three distinct phases. The initial phase, concluding in 2030, focuses on immediate industry development and production enhancement. The second phase, spanning 2031 to 2036, will target processing capabilities, coal utilization, and transportation infrastructure. The final phase, from 2037 to 2050, will realize the long-term objectives. The Energy Ministry will coordinate the execution, working alongside other federal and regional entities, and will submit annual progress reports to the Ministry of Economic Development as mandated by government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin introduced the revised programme during a cabinet meeting on September 21. It replaces the earlier coal industry plan extending through 2035, approved in 2020. Novak mentioned that the new strategy anticipates a sixfold increase in the overall value added by the coal sector by 2050, with the broader multiplier effect approaching nearly 10 trillion roubles. The figure of 662 million tonnes remains the target scenario, but it is not the exclusive pathway for future production.