ROME / RankWire.AI / – According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, the world’s cereal production is expected to reach approximately 2.98 billion tonnes in 2026. This represents a 2% decrease compared to the record harvest achieved in 2025. The latest forecast also indicates a shortfall of 3.4 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Despite this downward trend, global cereal output is forecasted to be the second highest ever recorded, with a total decrease of about 61.1 million tonnes compared to last year.
The weaker outlook is primarily driven by maize production, which is projected at 1.309 billion tonnes. Unfavorable hot and dry weather conditions led to lowered yield expectations across parts of the European Union. Notably, France and Poland experienced some of the largest downward revisions. Smaller reductions also affected India and Paraguay, whereas increased yields in Argentina and Brazil helped offset part of the decline. Both South American nations remain on track for maize harvests significantly exceeding their recent averages.
The prospects for wheat have improved from earlier assessments, although global production remains below last year’s levels. The Food and Agriculture Organization now estimates wheat output at 810.7 million tonnes, reflecting an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from prior forecasts. Enhanced yield expectations lifted projections for Canada and Morocco. Additionally, forecasts increased for Russia and Ukraine, while dry conditions led to reduced estimates for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Nonetheless, worldwide wheat production is still 3.8% lower than in 2025.
Maize setbacks impact overall grain production
Projected global rice production for the 2026/27 season stands at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis. This figure signifies a 1.9% decline from the revised record of the previous season. Better crop yields in Myanmar and Sri Lanka contributed positively to the latest outlook. However, these gains were not enough to counterbalance weaker projections for China, the Philippines, and the United States. The U.S. also experienced a significant drop in rice acreage, reaching levels not seen in decades, which reduces the country’s anticipated contribution to global rice supply.
Total cereal utilization worldwide is estimated at 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, reflecting a 0.2% rise from the previous season. While coarse grains and rice consumption are expected to grow, wheat consumption is forecasted to decline from the elevated levels observed last season. Global rice consumption is projected at 559 million tonnes, driven by increasing food demand tied to population growth. Additionally, feed demand sustains coarse grain usage, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
High cereal stockpiles persist despite downward revisions
At the close of the 2027 seasons, global cereal inventories are forecasted at 947.2 million tonnes. This estimate is 10.7 million tonnes lower than the previous projection but still 1.8 million tonnes above initial opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, slightly down from 31.9% in the prior season. Reserves of wheat are anticipated to grow in Russia and Ukraine, whereas reductions in maize and barley inventories mainly account for the overall decline in stock estimates.
International cereal trade for 2026/27 is expected to reach 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Despite this rise, total trade volume remains below the record set during 2025/26. The increase is predominantly driven by higher maize trade, with Argentina projected to export as much as 39 million tonnes. Global rice trade for 2026 is forecasted at 60.5 million tonnes, representing a 1.9% decrease from the record volume of 2025.
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