GENEVA, SWITZERLAND / EuroWire / — The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific, increasing the likelihood of higher global temperatures and disrupted rainfall patterns in the months ahead. The agency said unusually warm ocean waters are driving the shift, which is expected to raise the risk of extreme heat, drought, heavy rainfall and marine heatwaves across several regions as seasonal forecasts point to broad temperature anomalies through the northern hemisphere summer.
The latest El Niño and La Niña update puts the likelihood of El Niño during June to August 2026 at 80 percent, with probabilities near or above 90 percent for continuation until at least November. Forecast models reviewed by the agency indicate the event is likely to be at least moderate and may become strong, though the peak intensity and timing remain uncertain within the formal outlook.
Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific approached El Niño thresholds from late April to mid-May, while subsurface waters showed warm anomalies exceeding 6 degrees Celsius in parts of the equatorial Pacific. Those conditions support further surface warming and mark a rapid transition after neutral conditions earlier in 2026, according to the agency’s seasonal climate monitoring.
Forecasts point to broad heat risks
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern marked by warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and often lasts nine to 12 months. The World Meteorological Organization said the 2023-24 El Niño was among the five strongest on record and contributed to the record global temperatures observed in 2024.
The agency’s seasonal outlook indicates above-normal land temperatures across most of the globe during June, July and August. Expected rainfall impacts include wetter than usual conditions in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia, while drier conditions are more likely in Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia.
Regional rainfall patterns under watch
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said preparation is needed for a potentially strong El Niño event because of its links to drought, heavy rainfall and heatwaves over land and oceans. The agency also stressed the importance of seasonal forecasts, early warning systems and national climate services, especially in regions where agriculture, water supply, public health and disaster management are exposed to climate variability.
The warning comes as long term human driven warming continues to amplify baseline global temperatures. The 2026 outlook does not state that El Niño is caused by climate change, but it places the developing event against a warmer climate background. The agency said continued monitoring of ocean and atmosphere conditions will guide updates for governments, meteorological services and communities facing elevated risks from heat and rainfall extremes.